Startup + Mixed Behaviors

Monte Carlo Simulation Report

Simulations
10
Survival Rate
80%
Mean Price
$1.58
Mean Revenue
$125K
Decisions/Run
147.1
ROI Spread
4.86x
Exit Events
22
Timing Edge
+1.45x

Simulation Results: Startup + Mixed Behaviors

This analysis covers 10 simulations of a startup business model over 36 months.

Business Outcomes

The startup achieved breakthrough in 80% of simulations, exceeding typical startup success rates. Failed businesses (20%) typically exhausted their runway before finding product-market fit.

Participant Performance

▸ ROI Rankings (Mean): (13 participants)
  • WoM Entrant #5: 12.33x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #1: 11.14x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #4: 10.50x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #3: 9.57x █████████
  • Momentum Trader: 9.18x █████████
  • True Believer: 9.03x █████████
  • Skeptical Tester: 7.69x ███████
  • WoM Entrant #8: 6.40x ██████
  • WoM Entrant #6: 6.37x ██████
  • WoM Entrant #7: 6.30x ██████
  • Life Event Lisa: 5.71x █████
  • WoM Entrant #2: 5.52x █████
  • Angel Referrer: 4.37x ████
▸ Earn-Mode Performers (Total Value): (8)
  • Referral Hustler #3: $4255 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #2: $3968 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #4: $3942 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #6: $3911 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #1: $3776 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #5: $2501 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #7: $2079 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #8: $872 ██████████

Behavior Analysis:

Diamond hands outperformed in this scenario, achieving 9.03x average ROI. Their refusal to exit captured full upside when the business succeeded.

Rational actors achieved 4.37x average ROI. Their conservative approach may have triggered premature exits in some successful scenarios.

Trend followers achieved 9.18x average ROI. Momentum-based decisions led to variable outcomes depending on price trajectory timing.

Skeptics achieved 7.69x average ROI. Their early exits may have left money on the table in successful scenarios.

Sample Narrative

*The most dramatic story from 10 simulations:*

Drift AI launched in Jan 2024 creating no-code tools for non-technical founders. In Jan 2024, moving on to a new project. skeptical_tester lost confidence after a slow quarter at 4.5x return. By month 36, the business had stabilized at $7,622/month.

▸ All Business Stories: (10 stories)
  • Drift AI: accidentally went viral for the wrong reasons (but sales are sales) (survived, $104,396 total)
  • Drift: product went viral on TikTok (survived, $257,876 total)
  • Nova Analytics: DNS propagation took down the site for 48 hours (survived, $176,573 total)
  • Beacon: holiday season surge brought unexpected traffic (survived, $248,231 total)
  • Verde AI: accidentally shipped the wrong product to a reviewer (survived, $86,619 total)
  • Drift: holiday season surge brought unexpected traffic (survived, $8,220 total)
  • Vertex: featured on Theo (survived, $244,161 total)
  • Prism: featured on Lofi Girl (survived, $124,833 total)
  • Vantage: accidentally went viral for the wrong reasons (but sales are sales) (failed)
  • Beacon Logistics: Stripe account suspended pending review (failed)

Economic Observations

The √S pricing function dampened business volatility to 21% price variation—achieving the design goal of bounded volatility while preserving price discovery.

Supply Floor (S_min = 1000): The minimum supply floor prevented price collapse in failure scenarios. Floor price: $0.32. No simulation reached the floor, indicating adequate supply cushion.

Exit Queue Mechanism: With high survival rate, exit queues typically cleared quickly. The FIFO queue processed exits from ongoing revenue without delays.

Key Findings

1. High survival rate rewards patience. Diamond hands and long-term holders outperformed reactive strategies in this scenario.

2. WoM Entrant #5 achieved highest returns (12.33x), while Angel Referrer achieved lowest (4.37x).

Design Principle Check

Implication: For startup businesses with similar parameters, the token system creates meaningful value for early contributors.