Startup + Mixed Behaviors

Monte Carlo Simulation Report

Simulations
12
Survival Rate
83%
Mean Price
$1.63
Mean Revenue
$158K
Decisions/Run
152.0
ROI Spread
7.20x
Exit Events
27
Timing Edge
+3.46x

Simulation Results: Startup + Mixed Behaviors

This analysis covers 12 simulations of a startup business model over 36 months.

Business Outcomes

The startup achieved breakthrough in 83% of simulations, exceeding typical startup success rates. Failed businesses (17%) typically exhausted their runway before finding product-market fit.

Participant Performance

▸ ROI Rankings (Mean): (11 participants)
  • WoM Entrant #4: 16.59x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #1: 16.11x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #2: 15.75x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #5: 13.36x ██████████
  • Momentum Trader: 10.97x ██████████
  • True Believer: 10.74x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #3: 10.36x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #7: 9.38x █████████
  • Skeptical Tester: 9.11x █████████
  • Life Event Lisa: 6.27x ██████
  • Angel Referrer: 4.37x ████
▸ Earn-Mode Performers (Total Value): (7)
  • Referral Hustler #3: $8484 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #5: $5955 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #2: $5515 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #6: $4467 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #4: $4131 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #7: $1880 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #8: $1227 ██████████

Behavior Analysis:

Diamond hands outperformed in this scenario, achieving 10.74x average ROI. Their refusal to exit captured full upside when the business succeeded.

Rational actors achieved 4.37x average ROI. Their conservative approach may have triggered premature exits in some successful scenarios.

Trend followers achieved 10.97x average ROI. Momentum-based decisions led to variable outcomes depending on price trajectory timing.

Skeptics achieved 9.11x average ROI. Their early exits may have left money on the table in successful scenarios.

Sample Narrative

*The most dramatic story from 12 simulations:*

Beacon Analytics launched in Jan 2024 developing real-time analytics for small teams. In Feb 2024, product went viral on TikTok. Then in Jan 2025, holiday season surge brought unexpected traffic. angel_referrer lost confidence after a slow quarter at 4.4x return. By month 36, the business had stabilized at $4,713/month.

▸ All Business Stories: (12 stories)
  • Beacon Analytics: product went viral on TikTok (survived, $50,310 total)
  • Vantage: a Reddit post meant as a joke somehow converted (survived, $296,485 total)
  • Stratum: Google algorithm update tanked organic traffic (survived, $550 total)
  • Prism: featured on a popular tech reviewer (survived, $162,332 total)
  • Beacon Logistics: accidentally went viral for the wrong reasons (but sales are sales) (survived, $489,334 total)
  • Nova Logistics: a single tweet from an influencer changed everything (survived, $290,122 total)
  • Verde Analytics: a single tweet from an influencer changed everything (survived, $245,620 total)
  • Vertex: product went viral on TikTok (survived, $239,805 total)
  • Prism: SEO finally kicked in after months of content (survived, $115,683 total)
  • Vantage: Leo's cat walked across the keyboard and deleted the landing page (failed)
  • Stratum: a Reddit post meant as a joke somehow converted (survived, $3,479 total)
  • Flowstate: Stripe account suspended pending review (failed)

Economic Observations

The √S pricing function dampened business volatility to 28% price variation—achieving the design goal of bounded volatility while preserving price discovery.

Supply Floor (S_min = 1000): The minimum supply floor prevented price collapse in failure scenarios. Floor price: $0.32. No simulation reached the floor, indicating adequate supply cushion.

Exit Queue Mechanism: With high survival rate, exit queues typically cleared quickly. The FIFO queue processed exits from ongoing revenue without delays.

Key Findings

1. High survival rate rewards patience. Diamond hands and long-term holders outperformed reactive strategies in this scenario.

2. WoM Entrant #4 achieved highest returns (16.59x), while Angel Referrer achieved lowest (4.37x).

Design Principle Check

Implication: For startup businesses with similar parameters, the token system creates meaningful value for early contributors.