Startup + Mixed Behaviors

Monte Carlo Simulation Report

Simulations
12
Survival Rate
75%
Mean Price
$1.34
Mean Revenue
$72K
Decisions/Run
106.8
ROI Spread
4.44x
Exit Events
30
Timing Edge
+0.92x

Simulation Results: Startup + Mixed Behaviors

This analysis covers 12 simulations of a startup business model over 36 months.

Business Outcomes

The startup achieved breakthrough in 75% of simulations, exceeding typical startup success rates. Failed businesses (25%) typically exhausted their runway before finding product-market fit.

Participant Performance

▸ ROI Rankings (Mean): (9 participants)
  • WoM Entrant #5: 13.88x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #1: 11.84x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #2: 11.80x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #3: 8.13x ████████
  • Momentum Trader: 6.43x ██████
  • True Believer: 6.35x ██████
  • Skeptical Tester: 6.01x ██████
  • Life Event Lisa: 4.87x ████
  • Angel Referrer: 4.37x ████
▸ Earn-Mode Performers (Total Value): (8)
  • Referral Hustler #3: $7402 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #7: $2666 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #4: $2659 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #6: $2505 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #5: $2165 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #2: $1392 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #8: $1198 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #1: $1038 ██████████

Behavior Analysis:

Diamond hands outperformed in this scenario, achieving 6.35x average ROI. Their refusal to exit captured full upside when the business succeeded.

Rational actors achieved 4.37x average ROI. Their conservative approach may have triggered premature exits in some successful scenarios.

Trend followers achieved 6.43x average ROI. Momentum-based decisions led to variable outcomes depending on price trajectory timing.

Skeptics achieved 6.01x average ROI. Their early exits may have left money on the table in successful scenarios.

Sample Narrative

So Zara started Nova Logistics back in Jan 2024, developing collaborative editing tools. Started small, just a few hundred bucks a month, but Zara saw the potential.

Things got rough early though. Google algorithm update tanked organic traffic. Revenue tanked, and honestly? Most people would've given up right there.

But here's the crazy part: in Jun 2025, product went viral on TikTok. We're talking a 5.5x spike. The kind of month that makes you think maybe this thing could actually work.

angel_referrer bailed early—moving on to a new project—walked away at 4.4x. Not bad, but if they'd stuck around... well, you'll see.

Nova Logistics is still going—about $5,552 in total revenue so far. It's not going to make anyone rich, but Zara's built something real.

Economic Observations

The √S pricing function dampened business volatility to 25% price variation—achieving the design goal of bounded volatility while preserving price discovery.

Supply Floor (S_min = 1000): The minimum supply floor prevented price collapse in failure scenarios. Floor price: $0.32. No simulation reached the floor, indicating adequate supply cushion.

Exit Queue Mechanism: With high survival rate, exit queues typically cleared quickly. The FIFO queue processed exits from ongoing revenue without delays.

Key Findings

1. High survival rate rewards patience. Diamond hands and long-term holders outperformed reactive strategies in this scenario.

2. WoM Entrant #5 achieved highest returns (13.88x), while Angel Referrer achieved lowest (4.37x).

Design Principle Check

Implication: For startup businesses with similar parameters, the token system creates meaningful value for early contributors.