Startup + Mixed Behaviors

Monte Carlo Simulation Report

Simulations
20
Survival Rate
60%
Mean Price
$1.48
Mean Revenue
$92K
Decisions/Run
114.8
ROI Spread
5.09x
Exit Events
43
Timing Edge
+1.81x

Simulation Results: Startup + Mixed Behaviors

This analysis covers 20 simulations of a startup business model over 36 months.

Business Outcomes

The startup achieved breakthrough in 60% of simulations, exceeding typical startup success rates. Failed businesses (40%) typically exhausted their runway before finding product-market fit.

The significant gap between mean and median revenue indicates a right-skewed distribution with occasional extreme successes.

Participant Performance

▸ ROI Rankings (Mean): (12 participants)
  • WoM Entrant #8: 13.46x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #6: 12.97x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #4: 12.84x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #3: 10.16x ██████████
  • WoM Entrant #5: 9.47x █████████
  • WoM Entrant #1: 8.52x ████████
  • Momentum Trader: 7.88x ███████
  • WoM Entrant #2: 7.81x ███████
  • True Believer: 7.76x ███████
  • Skeptical Tester: 6.88x ██████
  • Life Event Lisa: 5.15x █████
  • Angel Referrer: 4.37x ████
▸ Earn-Mode Performers (Total Value): (8)
  • Referral Hustler #1: $7365 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #2: $5398 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #3: $4498 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #5: $4344 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #4: $3491 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #7: $3235 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #8: $1540 ██████████
  • Referral Hustler #6: $1293 ██████████

Behavior Analysis:

Diamond hands outperformed in this scenario, achieving 7.76x average ROI. Their refusal to exit captured full upside when the business succeeded.

Rational actors achieved 4.37x average ROI. Their conservative approach may have triggered premature exits in some successful scenarios.

Trend followers achieved 7.88x average ROI. Momentum-based decisions led to variable outcomes depending on price trajectory timing.

Skeptics achieved 6.88x average ROI. Their early exits may have left money on the table in successful scenarios.

Sample Narrative

So Yuki started Drift Tech back in Jan 2024, building developer productivity tools. Started small, just a few hundred bucks a month, but Yuki saw the potential.

The first few months were pretty quiet—just grinding, building up a small customer base.

Of course, it wasn't all up and to the right. Payment processor audit froze payouts and revenue cratered.

Anyway, it didn't work out. Drift Tech shut down after 36 months. Never really found the traction they needed. Yuki's already working on something new though.

Economic Observations

The √S pricing function dampened business volatility to 23% price variation—achieving the design goal of bounded volatility while preserving price discovery.

Supply Floor (S_min = 1000): The minimum supply floor prevented price collapse in failure scenarios. Floor price: $0.32. No simulation reached the floor, indicating adequate supply cushion.

Exit Queue Mechanism: In failed scenarios, exit queues froze when revenue stopped. Participants who exited early captured value; late exits risked queue freeze.

Key Findings

1. Mixed outcomes favor balanced strategies. Neither pure conviction nor pure caution dominated. Risk management mattered.

2. WoM Entrant #8 achieved highest returns (13.46x), while Angel Referrer achieved lowest (4.37x).

Design Principle Check

Implication: For startup businesses with similar parameters, the token system creates meaningful value for early contributors.